Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
IU Indy Jaguars vs. Air Force Falcons
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc031a2f8786968512c97430ed4e1cf01cc501f1b5101c3b0dd0652c8a61a7d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Air Force Falconsof IU Indy Jaguars, Air Force Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Air Force Falcons | 61c | 1,985$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.15 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed IU Indy Jaguars | 39c | 1,875$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.25 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Air Force Falcons | 61c | 1,659$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.72 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed IU Indy Jaguars | 66c | 986$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.05 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Air Force Falcons | 56c | 976.78$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.98 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked IU Indy Jaguars | 41c | 800$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed IU Indy Jaguars | 7c | 755$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9c…57b3backed IU Indy Jaguars | 41c | 734.12$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked IU Indy Jaguars | 39c | 699.88$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.82 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked IU Indy Jaguars | 38c | 560.44$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed IU Indy Jaguars | 56c | 546.11$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.98 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Air Force Falcons | 49c | 396$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.02 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Air Force Falcons | 52c | 375$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Air Force Falcons | 57c | 309.11$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.43 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…80edbacked IU Indy Jaguars | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked IU Indy Jaguars | 22c | 189$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Air Force Falcons | 49c | 146.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Air Force Falcons | 73c | 80.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked IU Indy Jaguars | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b9…ed3abacked IU Indy Jaguars | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed Air Force Falcons | 63c | 36.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…7c26backed Air Force Falcons | 61c | 34.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…9ed8backed IU Indy Jaguars | 39c | 34.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…07efbacked Air Force Falcons | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed IU Indy Jaguars | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed IU Indy Jaguars | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Air Force Falcons | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…43f4backed IU Indy Jaguars | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…95d4backed IU Indy Jaguars | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Air Force Falcons | 63c | 21.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf03c…f0c5backed Air Force Falcons | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- IU Indy Jaguars vs. Air Force Falconsthis page
- IU Indy Jaguars vs. Air Force Falcons: O/U 178.5Over won
- Spread: Air Force Falcons (-4.5)Air Force Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.