South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc241025c006062b05c96577d610c671f2fdcd434bd383bdcb88e221518108bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 20c | 6,068$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,851.65 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 4,504$2,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,962.57 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 80c | 1,859$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.9 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3097…a2cabacked No | 71c | 1,462$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…d055backed Yes | 29c | 1,460$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 19c | 1,199$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 20c | 1,019$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.67 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 33c | 673$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.9 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 58c | 652.41$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.14 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 597.29$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.99 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4a…c962backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 62c | 380$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 20c | 302.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.54 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de0…0884backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +230.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yes | 18c | 272.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 43c | 243.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Yes | 19c | 242.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b0a5backed Yes | 27c | 208.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed No | 15c | 204$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked Yes | 47c | 201.25$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 27c | 148.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 79c | 129.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x139a…34bbbacked No | 44c | 102.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 19c | 101.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +344.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed No | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 27c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 28c | 71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 16c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +169.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Yes | 18c | 65.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…49d8backed No | 78c | 62.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 46c | 61.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 25c | 58.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…6ad8backed No | 29c | 37.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed No | 75c | 37.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 72c | 31.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 74c | 22.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64b…7b63backed No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-12-04?No won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-12-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.