South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-12-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ab3a98e82bebbc70b0bac14c7540013a73096d21de8214be2f7e47b3ec84e56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 4,043$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.7 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 19c | 3,002$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.48 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 4c | 2,356$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 5c | 1,468$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…d9c7backed Yes | 25c | 1,393$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d8…a851backed No | 75c | 1,389$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ed…617ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,196$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 19c | 1,035$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 18c | 911.25$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 3c | 856.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 19c | 789.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 8c | 742$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 132 | 28%37 W · 95 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 78c | 580$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.6 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…6657backed No | 76c | 551.32$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.32 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6211…490cbacked Yes | 13c | 522.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 18c | 421$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 20c | 396.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 20c | 388.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 17c | 387.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 19c | 365.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…0d1cbacked Yes | 8c | 354.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 22c | 326$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked Yes | 12c | 323.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…494bbacked Yes | 4c | 308.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 301.7$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…f3c9backed Yes | 4c | 245$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154b…4917backed Yes | 22c | 215.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff41…dcc1backed Yes | 9c | 182.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed Yes | 8c | 166.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…25c2backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed Yes | 21c | 113.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…95c0backed Yes | 19c | 105.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5e…08adbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…4bf9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…5408backed Yes | 22c | 92.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba4…b3c1backed Yes | 21c | 90.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…9779backed Yes | 19c | 80.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 18c | 72.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 16c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64b…7b63backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-12-04?this page
- Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-12-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.