WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc32a0f5fb68de6fdfb015ed4dd1a9f1263625da26246af6f30c647b66211ec6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Los Angeles Sparks, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 3,414$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.5 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 46c | 2,516$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.12 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Los Angeles Sparks | 44c | 496.98$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.31 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Los Angeles Sparks | 46c | 301.44$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.66 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Phoenix Mercury | 57c | 298.76$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 46c | 256$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Los Angeles Sparks | 46c | 198.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.31 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Phoenix Mercury | 57c | 156.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 150.55$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 140.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 43c | 138$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Los Angeles Sparks | 43c | 131.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Los Angeles Sparks | 47c | 79.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Los Angeles Sparks | 46c | 59.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Los Angeles Sparks | 45c | 55.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 51.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…3333backed Los Angeles Sparks | 46c | 43.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 34.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Los Angeles Sparks | 45c | 29.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Phoenix Mercury | 58c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-2.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles SparksPhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-1.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.