WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3ee4a1dbb8c9e747208fc93b80a3b9c5472885a67763e6595e06cff3be4ca78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Los Angeles Sparks, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x684b…8409backed Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 7,381$3,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,837.87 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 6,192$3,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,096 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 5,803$2,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,988.18 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 4,126$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.81 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Los Angeles Sparks | 49c | 1,878$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.27 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 1,648$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.74 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 1,602$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.98 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.63 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 1,553$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 46c | 1,458$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.89 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 1,447$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.32 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…2dbebacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 1,446$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 1,205$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.55 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fe…aac5backed Los Angeles Sparks | 49c | 1,080$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.57 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…4b0dbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 1,064$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…3087backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 49c | 959.18$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Los Angeles Sparks | 49c | 818.66$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.14 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 698.9$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.45 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Los Angeles Sparks | 49c | 632$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.68 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…c767backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 614.55$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.42 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Sparks | 48c | 598.92$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.48 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 582.78$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.87 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 502.73$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.39 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…fb89backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 460$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Sparks | 45c | 460$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Los Angeles Sparks | 43c | 394.55$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 363.61$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.81 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Los Angeles Sparks | 40c | 357.54$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 324$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.32 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 284.78$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.36 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc306…accdbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 261.71$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.02 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Phoenix Mercury | 57c | 242.08$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 224.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…5152backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 201$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Los Angeles Sparks | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 176$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.76 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 170.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 165.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.32 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 138$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 129$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Los Angeles Sparks | 49c | 128$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 119.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Sparks | 39c | 114.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 101$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed Los Angeles Sparks | 49c | 77.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 64c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 60.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 56.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 40.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 33.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 31.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 27.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 47c | 25.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 49c | 25.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Los Angeles Sparks | 49c | 22.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 22.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 173 | 43.9%76 W · 97 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…ee03backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 22.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Phoenix Mercury | 59c | 21.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9169…0359backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-1.5)this page
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles SparksPhoenix Mercury won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5Under won
- Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-2.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.