Movies · resolved market
Will "Jingle Bell Heist" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 2 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc3be175675fd1226535cce218f28050464ebfb54214612d088d699641f61812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 13c | 4,790$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,464$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 36c | 652.7$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.97 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 67c | 599.86$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.86 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 44c | 360.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 18c | 317.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e2…c125backed Yes | 79c | 272.4$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed Yes | 66c | 250$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 27c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 26c | 139.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…0f21backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 62.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…c078backed Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…7348backed Yes | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…24a1backed Yes | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…7e7cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Jingle Bell Heist" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 2 2025)this page
- Will "Champagne Problems" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 2 2025)No won
- Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 2 2025)No won
- Will "In Your Dreams" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December 2 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.