World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc4071d1d64b6799427e080a2996dec3a6659ab0a7e655c220839d959a8dc6ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 25c | 416.54$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 236.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 37c | 231.93$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 24c | 178.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked No | 64c | 146.28$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 107.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 103.7$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 100.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 64c | 93.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 76.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 68.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 63.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 58.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 54.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 28c | 54.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 37c | 43.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 44c | 40.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 79c | 39.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 35.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 66c | 32.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 80c | 32.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +374.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 75c | 32.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked No | 72c | 31.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 63c | 31.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 39c | 29.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 62c | 28.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee5…ec3dbacked No | 71c | 27.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 38c | 26.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 52c | 25.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 25.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 69c | 24.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…79debacked No | 71c | 24.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 23.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aac…bc3bbacked No | 71c | 22.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 19.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 71c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 63c | 16.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.