Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc40c0e89bae66010b34c3edf8b6606e16a3cc972cee15f896c9764898b5923c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,111 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 0c | 15,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…f8d0backed Yes | 6c | 2,533$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 253.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 236.3$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 35c | 194.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 37c | 176.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 71c | 168.49$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 156.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 153.92$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7926…a4febacked Yes | 57c | 142.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 117.83$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 115.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 33c | 114.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 108.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 22c | 107.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 28c | 106$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 59c | 103.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbe…4d88backed Yes | 33c | 95.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 93.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 90.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 59c | 82.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 24c | 81.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 45c | 78.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 42c | 70.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…c957backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 67.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 48c | 66.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 22c | 65.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 64.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 62.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 28c | 61.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 35c | 56.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 52.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 29c | 52.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 43.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0e…216cbacked Yes | 69c | 42.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 30c | 39.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 66c | 39.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…2efbbacked Yes | 65c | 38.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 62c | 36.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes | 59c | 34.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 68c | 33.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…154cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…6d3fbacked Yes | 60c | 21.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 75c | 20.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 77c | 20.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.