Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc426276bc6f7a8781bf7243779f815f6743ea993420e0aa581ee4d798211364
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 334.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 73c | 259.63$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed Yes | 52c | 245.39$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 214.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 212.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 200.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 188.28$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 181.73$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 76c | 176.74$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 59c | 171.52$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.53 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 142.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 76c | 141.93$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 121.64$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 119.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 115.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 104.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 103.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 102.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 98.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 93.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 35c | 85.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 84.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 70.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 74c | 67.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 31c | 66.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 71c | 66.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 75c | 61.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 60.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 27c | 59.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 67c | 54.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 30c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 30c | 49.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 79c | 49.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 49.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 48.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 49c | 46.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 28c | 43.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 41.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed Yes | 29c | 36.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…38eebacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…b997backed Yes | 37c | 32.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f5…72bcbacked Yes | 34c | 32.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 64c | 31.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…8262backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 26.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 79c | 25.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed No | 66c | 22.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 21.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.