Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc590ef8f96ffde5756ea41d524ee0abcd738999062d6a24a1c8051d0d18e260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 1,859$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.47 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 6c | 1,095$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 10c | 423.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 14c | 380.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 10c | 328.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 35c | 308.05$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 14c | 261.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 9c | 257.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 9c | 251.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 6c | 196.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 16c | 180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 8c | 160.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 7c | 142.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 72c | 138.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 13c | 121.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 17c | 121.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 12c | 107.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 104.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 12c | 103.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 14c | 97.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 94.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 42c | 91.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 17c | 79.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14c…5bdebacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 67.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 66.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 26c | 58.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 75c | 56.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 73c | 50.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 33c | 50.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 49c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 54c | 31.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…dbe4backed No | 78c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 79c | 28.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 72c | 25.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 69c | 25.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.