Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75515ed42ceb8d8b7047ee34a755333de93f55c0ff1d0993c83fa3f58a3636db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 636.29$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 612.49$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 448.29$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.29 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 414.71$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.98 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 31c | 331.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.48 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked No | 65c | 307.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…fb8fbacked Yes | 35c | 285.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 273.8$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…b48dbacked Yes | 43c | 233.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 228.46$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 211.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 54c | 203.87$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 48c | 183$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 180.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 56c | 180.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 51c | 176.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 171.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 160.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 59c | 159.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed No | 51c | 158.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 146.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 136.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 129.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 67c | 129.24$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 42c | 125.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 12c | 125.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…a60abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 48c | 123.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 120.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 39c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 63c | 118.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 46c | 116.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 26c | 116.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 50c | 113.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 71c | 112.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 57c | 112.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 39c | 109.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 109.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 20c | 101.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 36c | 100.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 15c | 98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 97.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 94.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 58c | 94.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 22c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…1df6backed Yes | 19c | 84.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 84.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 82.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 82.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 80.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 76.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 33c | 75.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 31c | 74.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 39c | 72.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 71.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 69.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 64.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 69c | 62.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 62.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 53c | 59.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 59c | 56.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 53.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 46.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 29c | 43.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 29c | 42.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 40.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…c693backed Yes | 26c | 38.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 66c | 37.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 45c | 37.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 36.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 55c | 35.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 35.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 63c | 34.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 33.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.