Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84c920d205f697bb4a2f7fbe6159d8e7ce0ca22c926931c11c11d8a272d283f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 2,182$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 60c | 1,137$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.74 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 899.4$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 2c | 814.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 623.89$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.93 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 51c | 521.49$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.31 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 459$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 31c | 430.87$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.66 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 36c | 385.65$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.05 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 375.91$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aac…1df6backed No | 10c | 356.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 63c | 345$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.1 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 48c | 337.04$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.8 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 308.88$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.41 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked No | 41c | 304.67$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 60c | 282.67$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 70c | 271.74$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.87 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 260.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 42c | 259.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.18 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 73c | 233.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 53c | 231.93$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.97 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 210$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 201.36$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 201.09$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 60c | 163.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 159.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 28c | 158.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 48c | 156.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 63c | 149.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 146.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 140.06$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 31c | 135.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 134.37$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 30c | 132.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 40c | 132.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 60c | 128.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 42c | 126.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 42c | 111.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 31c | 110.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 38c | 107.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 76c | 102.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 46c | 98.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 91.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 90.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 23c | 86.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked No | 36c | 86.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 28c | 85.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 62c | 80.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 36c | 80.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 29c | 80.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 79.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 53c | 75.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed Yes | 73c | 73.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 39c | 73.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 31c | 72.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 29c | 71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 70.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 52c | 61.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 39c | 58.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 28c | 58.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 70c | 58.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 72c | 55.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 29c | 53.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 53.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked No | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 58c | 47.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 45c | 46.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 46.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 70c | 43.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 64c | 43.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 42.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 45c | 41.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 56c | 39.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…bf09backed Yes | 72c | 38.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 38.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…2429backed No | 37c | 36.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ac…ab88backed Yes | 66c | 36.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 64c | 35.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.