Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc828149b9c543777224a17300489d6ef905e415bb16a6819db300ba5a2a23c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 29c | 861.73$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.09 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 30c | 650.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.63 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed Yes | 25c | 386.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 361.79$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 54c | 320.56$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47bb…ef0dbacked Yes | 35c | 250.79$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Yes | 35c | 245.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 54c | 244.89$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.18 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed No | 50c | 216.33$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 72c | 208.21$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20e…d622backed No | 73c | 203.95$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…4868backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 79c | 191$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 21c | 183.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 44c | 169.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 63c | 157.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8c…b6b1backed Yes | 55c | 147.88$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 22c | 138.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 30c | 132.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…1e2ebacked Yes | 48c | 112.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 57c | 110.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…9851backed Yes | 38c | 91.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa3…90acbacked No | 72c | 89.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 14c | 85.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…780fbacked Yes | 20c | 79.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…1c9cbacked Yes | 55c | 36.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd1…bad7backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 86°F or higher on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 78-79°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 82-83°F on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 84-85°F on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.