Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Lorenzo Sonego vs Yannick Hanfmann
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc87d7a24ca908f08cf056b5a4f342ad2a41bc0e4838ec22926fdfc46cea5cc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hanfmannof Sonego, Hanfmann
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6937…085dbacked Hanfmann | 41c | 11,268$4,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,695.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Sonego | 60c | 8,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Sonego | 57c | 4,000$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Hanfmann | 42c | 2,482$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.62 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sonego | 58c | 1,314$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.07 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Hanfmann | 43c | 847.79$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.53 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Hanfmann | 40c | 835.35$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.21 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Sonego | 59c | 672.41$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Hanfmann | 40c | 612.29$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.51 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Hanfmann | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Sonego | 57c | 465.12$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.12 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sonego | 58c | 431.21$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sonego | 61c | 375.5$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.71 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Sonego | 59c | 300$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Sonego | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hanfmann | 41c | 250$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Sonego | 60c | 240$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e18…3082backed Sonego | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sonego | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Hanfmann | 44c | 157.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.37 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Hanfmann | 27c | 138.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Hanfmann | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…1eb0backed Sonego | 66c | 118.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -11.1wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Sonego | 69c | 109$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…c7f5backed Hanfmann | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +39%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Sonego | 49c | 40.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…0e50backed Sonego | 58c | 40.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…a613backed Hanfmann | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Sonego | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.