South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc9d3e9f27217b2eb520f7bcfa9f2f13b26bb78e3ef63fc88492e2489b2eb7d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9857…a505backed Over | 0c | 23,606$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 0c | 7,472$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…8044backed Over | 43c | 1,528$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 199 | 55.8%111 W · 88 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 1,158$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.29 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 886.57$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.5 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 47c | 639.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 48c | 561.4$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.93 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 46c | 551.49$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.32 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e09…2d11backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 410.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.98 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa467…587dbacked Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 52c | 398.21$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.86 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 57c | 352.63$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.63 | 117 | 63.2%74 W · 43 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 54c | 280.85$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.02 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 54c | 239$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 30c | 190.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 19c | 166.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 159.56$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…d51ebacked Under | 46c | 128.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 52c | 128$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 53c | 113$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…46cebacked Under | 70c | 102.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 54c | 85.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 33c | 69.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 46c | 61.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 54c | 61.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6852…ce4dbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 40c | 49.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ee1abacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…5ea2backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 71c | 42.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 162 | 66%107 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 51c | 38.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 31c | 35.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 58c | 34.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 197 | 61.9%122 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 33c | 32.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 63c | 30.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 69c | 28.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c73…dd8fbacked Under | 49c | 28.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 44c | 24.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…e018backed Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 61c | 20.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6b…d10abacked Over | 54c | 19.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…af63backed Under | 62c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 3.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 2.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. Club Independiente Petrolero: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.