NBA · resolved market
Will the Celtics beat the Magic 4-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcc78a0c94664deb3665789611d4973208217d1b800d2a2f33ec13146bbc924a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $264,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1031…f65fbacked Yes | 63c | 51,051$32,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,888.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c8…1b65backed No | 37c | 51,051$18,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,888.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf55…eb6abacked No | 68c | 48,198$32,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,774.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…f69dbacked Yes | 32c | 48,198$15,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,774.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…9930backed No | 67c | 31,076$20,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,820.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x826f…6e3dbacked Yes | 33c | 31,076$10,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,820.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 39c | 517.86$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.77 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 41c | 345.71$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.79 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 143.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed No | 64c | 132.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 36c | 111$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 32c | 100.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 66c | 88.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…f17abacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…5c47backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…3087backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeace…fe6abacked Yes | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Yes | 38c | 31.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…cfd2backed Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Celtics beat the Magic 4-1?this page
- Will the Celtics beat the Magic 4-0?No won
- Will the Celtics beat the Magic 4-2?No won
- Will the Celtics beat the Magic 4-3?No won
- Will the Magic beat the Celtics 4-0?No won
- Will the Magic beat the Celtics 4-1?No won
- Will the Magic beat the Celtics 4-2?No won
- Will the Magic beat the Celtics 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.