Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcc7c2f9f69008b3fe7641d4e3f7769b75c5b0815aab0d658c25f56c6c9c9030
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 5c | 324.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 254.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 36c | 151.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 119.46$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 115.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 44c | 92.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 88.77$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 85.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 72c | 69.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 53c | 59.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 44.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 66c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 68c | 39.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 32c | 38.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 37.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes | 42c | 36.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 42c | 34.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 62c | 32.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 39c | 31.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 31.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 30.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 46c | 30.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 60c | 29.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 61c | 28.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 54c | 23.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 59c | 20.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 50c | 20.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 71c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 17.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…a0f0backed No | 63c | 16.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.