Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70e476dbcea795e550c7211587d65d62ea9044abd71d5d38c6df86c54f2e4ce2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 43c | 248.65$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 197.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 59c | 164.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 162.53$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.56 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 36c | 149.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 57c | 141.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 137.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 132.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…35cbbacked Yes | 69c | 121.11$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 27c | 120.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…68ddbacked Yes | 67c | 111.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…97dcbacked Yes | 30c | 109.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 43c | 92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 66c | 87.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 69c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 29c | 78.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 35c | 77.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 77.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 52c | 76.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 73.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 34c | 56.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 53.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedeb…3553backed Yes | 80c | 53.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 53c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 48c | 48.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 30c | 43.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…3ca5backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 36.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked No | 47c | 36.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 75c | 36.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 61c | 33.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 66c | 32.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 66c | 31.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 31.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 46c | 30.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 30.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 74c | 29.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 39c | 25.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 64c | 24.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 56c | 19.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885b…4b09backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.