Euroleague · resolved market
Euro Basket: Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcd2ceb3a7785b42b2449afc8e84be6e61947a8865451eb76d8a2be5f958f6e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Polandof Poland, Herzegovina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Poland | 46c | 6,770$3,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,685.21 | 343 | 44.3%152 W · 191 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Herzegovina | 48c | 3,337$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.21 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Herzegovina | 57c | 2,711$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.39 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Herzegovina | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Herzegovina | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Herzegovina | 27c | 1,374$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.21 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Poland | 65c | 1,197$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…6cfebacked Poland | 64c | 1,170$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…ad47backed Poland | 40c | 1,015$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…9bd2backed Poland | 64c | 924.71$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.65 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Herzegovina | 40c | 874.62$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +78%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Herzegovina | 37c | 820.58$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.47 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Poland | 63c | 792.43$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.2 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Herzegovina | 42c | 712$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.48 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Herzegovina | 35c | 597.68$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.77 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…1dbdbacked Poland | 55c | 535.09$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Poland | 60c | 499.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…c116backed Poland | 58c | 474.33$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +127%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…ec02backed Herzegovina | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Herzegovina | 37c | 369.47$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Poland | 61c | 350$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Herzegovina | 48c | 328$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…c5f2backed Herzegovina | 37c | 304.48$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…c600backed Poland | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Herzegovina | 39c | 235$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…b467backed Herzegovina | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Poland | 65c | 180$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…f529backed Herzegovina | 24c | 175$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5efc…416ebacked Poland | 64c | 154.59$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…9decbacked Poland | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Poland | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Poland | 66c | 151.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x088a…f2dbbacked Poland | 67c | 134.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Herzegovina | 49c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Poland | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed Poland | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…e633backed Poland | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Herzegovina | 35c | 79.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Herzegovina | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Poland | 47c | 67.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22f…7714backed Poland | 66c | 65.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Herzegovina | 39c | 53.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Herzegovina | 51c | 25.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Poland | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Poland | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Herzegovina | 59c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.