MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcda2a65669abb7164406c6e3bf9dffcaaaccb8b1d3df4caabcedcc398f6417a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed New York Yankees | 35c | 6,923$2,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,533.13 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 18c | 4,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 80c | 3,167$2,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 2,799$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.64 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 2,053$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 1,909$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,431.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Yankees | 42c | 1,015$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.83 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 999.99$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Yankees | 74c | 807.57$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.84 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed New York Yankees | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Toronto Blue Jays | 79c | 693.95$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.67 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 621.56$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.25 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed New York Yankees | 34c | 404.8$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.28 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 392.49$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.64 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 378$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.24 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Toronto Blue Jays | 80c | 373.57$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.43 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 42c | 345.51$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 26c | 306.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.25 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 43c | 242.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.26 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 234.95$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094d…5a65backed New York Yankees | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked New York Yankees | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed New York Yankees | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 15c | 151$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 146.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Yankees | 47c | 125.4$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 122$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 92.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 83.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed New York Yankees | 36c | 79.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked New York Yankees | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked New York Yankees | 23c | 62.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 61.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 52.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed New York Yankees | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed New York Yankees | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 28.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 26.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe24a…f539backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed New York Yankees | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed New York Yankees | 62c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…93afbacked New York Yankees | 45c | 23.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 420 | 41.9%176 W · 244 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 51c | 22.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 20.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…900ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 19.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.