MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49271490fece2fea52827e83d212dc5ca98f5f772eed05dd09c6fcb3e5a76206
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 18,328$8,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,799.37 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 12,781$6,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,883.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 51c | 4,217$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150.49 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 47c | 3,418$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.8 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 2,783$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.2 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 51c | 2,200$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 2,112$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 1,633$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 1,608$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 49c | 1,301$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.83 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 51c | 979.27$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.08 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 639.09$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.27 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 49c | 610.88$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.29 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 594.7$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e9…e2dfbacked Over | 51c | 405$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.55 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb45…0cadbacked Under | 46c | 357.3$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.36 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 47c | 263.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.88 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 211.26$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 48c | 168.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.88 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…e828backed Under | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 156.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Over | 50c | 103.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 58c | 92.59$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 60c | 89.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 55c | 88.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Under | 51c | 86.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 50c | 83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 49c | 82.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…30febacked Over | 42c | 55.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…3ca2backed Over | 54c | 55.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 46.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 53c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 34.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 45c | 31.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 54c | 30.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b8…2350backed Over | 42c | 29.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 46c | 28.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 47c | 25.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…93afbacked Over | 44c | 24.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 420 | 41.9%176 W · 244 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…8beebacked Over | 55c | 24.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Under | 52c | 23.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 51c | 22.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 20.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 61c | 19.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.