Earnings · resolved market
Will Aflac (AFL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcf726fe7a0d431c461a8df4367074bf18a43ffa6d018e1b8480adc746a37020
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 400$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 27c | 350$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.16 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 29c | 332.59$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.14 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed Yes | 75c | 307.27$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.1 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 37c | 303.08$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9728…0314backed No | 18c | 260$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +199.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 20c | 241.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.29 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed No | 37c | 189.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 63c | 188$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…a8bbbacked Yes | 65c | 154.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 70c | 141.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 62c | 119$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 73c | 104$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22c6…4574backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 93.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 72c | 69.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…aa24backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 73c | 65.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed No | 38c | 65.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 79c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 40c | 58.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 29c | 47.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…7ddebacked No | 43c | 46.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 27c | 38.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 28c | 36.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed No | 32c | 35.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 30c | 33.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…5061backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.4wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…e1f4backed Yes | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…f1bcbacked Yes | 75c | 18.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…d604backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…45acbacked Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…fe56backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.