NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pacers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd03375455f291e7afc241f1c650d044b6db1fa18ffef887a51853e8a794ab56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Pacers, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pacers | 46c | 3,813$1,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.51 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Nets | 53c | 2,045$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.9 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 54c | 1,338$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Nets | 55c | 1,076$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.57 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Pacers | 45c | 993.57$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.47 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Nets | 54c | 953.31$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.79 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nets | 55c | 877.02$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.36 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…9cebbacked Pacers | 45c | 818.28$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.05 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…9992backed Pacers | 45c | 696.98$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.34 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Nets | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pacers | 67c | 588.12$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.08 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Nets | 55c | 583.8$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.09 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Pacers | 46c | 533.86$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.29 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Pacers | 44c | 457.41$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.15 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Nets | 56c | 441.57$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.28 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 48cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bca…0d11backed Nets | 54c | 413.81$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.46 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Pacers | 46c | 357.59$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.1 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 20c | 355.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Nets | 56c | 301.82$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.02 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Nets | 54c | 299.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6b…9619backed Pacers | 46c | 284.47$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb403…f014backed Nets | 55c | 282.17$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pacers | 50c | 271.91$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.05 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pacers | 51c | 200.03$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.11 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Nets | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 382 | 42.9%164 W · 218 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Pacers | 46c | 197.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.45 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…c00abacked Nets | 55c | 194.6$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 188 | 39.9%75 W · 113 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Nets | 55c | 180.88$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Nets | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Pacers | 44c | 92.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Pacers | 45c | 78.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pacers | 45c | 62.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Nets | 32c | 55.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Nets | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Nets | 55c | 42.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 319 | 53%169 W · 150 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Pacers | 47c | 41.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Nets | 54c | 38.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 146 | 40.4%59 W · 87 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Nets | 54c | 38.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 417 | 53.2%222 W · 195 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Nets | 54c | 32.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Nets | 55c | 31.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb460…b5e1backed Pacers | 47c | 30.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Nets | 54c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pacers (-4.5)this page
- Pacers vs. NetsPacers won
- Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 209.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 215.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spread: Pacers (-11.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pacers (-14.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pacers (-23.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pacers (-3.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.