TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago White Soxof Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,181
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,181

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,181 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox56c12,586$7,060 inWon+$5,526.2311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays44c11,023$4,850 inLost-$4,8504,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays34c4,247$1,461 inLost-$1,460.8110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox73c2,319$1,693 inWon+$626.184,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Chicago White Sox65c158.06$103 inWon+$55.321,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Toronto Blue Jays35c144.75$50 inLost-$50.529549.8%147 W · 148 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox58c141.35$82 inWon+$59.374,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Chicago White Sox77c113.27$87 inWon+$26.41,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d1…de26backed Chicago White Sox73c41.1$30 inWon+$11.111060.9%67 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Chicago White Sox58c35.36$20 inWon+$14.951,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Chicago White Sox59c25.42$15 inWon+$10.4215050%75 W · 75 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Chicago White Sox58c20$12 inWon+$8.416057.5%92 W · 68 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.