MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe884b7fc51b600b902ad141db58ba3d64606cad7acb952ea8564b49394b0926
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 46c | 53,428$24,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,576.99 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 47,311$25,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,993.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 43,105$23,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,022.65 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Over | 47c | 40,000$18,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,799.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Over | 47c | 14,530$6,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,829.1 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 52c | 4,816$2,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.46 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 4,322$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,031.54 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 53c | 2,894$1,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.22 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 56c | 1,396$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.85 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 1,264$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.06 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Over | 53c | 1,133$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 53c | 934.3$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.12 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 576$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.51 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 45c | 488.6$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.87 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 62c | 400.52$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.24 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 273$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 47c | 233.03$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 217.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 195$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Under | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 47c | 133.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 54c | 132.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 45c | 125.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 94.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 77.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 61c | 62.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Under | 48c | 42.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 38.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…7d66backed Under | 55c | 36.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…3320backed Over | 48c | 31.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 61c | 29.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed77…2b75backed Under | 54c | 29.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 62c | 29.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.