Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd9f35b2433b51897094d82a5b36459592c816c92c9c269b81ca1e52fd9ccc7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 25c | 1,209$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.01 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 999.95$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.49 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 49c | 950.11$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.11 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 12c | 822.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 30c | 814.96$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.52 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 34c | 789.02$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.42 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 78c | 393.34$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.88 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 41c | 330$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.2 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…6ababacked No | 44c | 210$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 79c | 185$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c13…3c34backed No | 57c | 174.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 55c | 150.06$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 35c | 124.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a66…8c0cbacked Yes | 28c | 105.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 25c | 103.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…f362backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 79c | 85.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 30c | 80.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcf…17b7backed Yes | 42c | 63.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 41c | 62.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed Yes | 40c | 58.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4d…0b8fbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 14.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 1?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 1?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 1?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 1?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 1?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 1?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 1?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 1?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.