South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfda93708afdb10a751d850b52624adfbdedb006f732c2bb2a4abde73ef1f3e58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CR Flamengoof CR Flamengo, Independiente Medellín
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Independiente Medellín | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea5…dc51backed Independiente Medellín | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed CR Flamengo | 29c | 816.1$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.43 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked CR Flamengo | 54c | 447.21$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.63 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Independiente Medellín | 72c | 435.42$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.54 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Independiente Medellín | 63c | 261.79$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.39 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked CR Flamengo | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.83 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Independiente Medellín | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Independiente Medellín | 63c | 204$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Independiente Medellín | 63c | 198$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Independiente Medellín | 49c | 185.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Independiente Medellín | 79c | 163.12$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.47 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CR Flamengo | 29c | 158.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.92 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Independiente Medellín | 62c | 155.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed CR Flamengo | 30c | 111.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…317ebacked Independiente Medellín | 64c | 107.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Independiente Medellín | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed CR Flamengo | 50c | 78.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…7e1dbacked Independiente Medellín | 62c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Independiente Medellín | 62c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…c307backed CR Flamengo | 39c | 49.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed CR Flamengo | 29c | 47.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked CR Flamengo | 37c | 38.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…a18fbacked Independiente Medellín | 63c | 30.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Independiente Medellín | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Independiente Medellín | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Independiente Medellín | 66c | 24.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Independiente Medellín | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)this page
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 3.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.