South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65e12f523f89d6f74d2f1ac142fde72cf0c3c650f30aaf22f63343e81d42f39b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 30c | 2,447$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.22 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Over | 65c | 2,057$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.05 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed Under | 40c | 2,038$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 76c | 1,649$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.9 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 1,225$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.7 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…8e52backed Under | 73c | 1,011$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.85 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked Under | 4c | 676.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 20c | 387.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.6 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 80c | 351.55$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 21c | 246$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.44 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…beaebacked Over | 72c | 202.66$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1b…09aebacked Over | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.65 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked Under | 27c | 185$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Over | 73c | 175.74$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Over | 80c | 175.05$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe56d…361abacked Over | 63c | 156.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 106.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Over | 49c | 105.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +483.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…4186backed Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 73c | 98.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 40c | 96.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 70c | 87.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 213 | 59.6%127 W · 86 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…defdbacked Under | 50c | 73.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 74c | 66.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 26c | 66.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 47.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 32c | 46.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c83…8380backed Over | 51c | 46.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 172 | 61%105 W · 67 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 75c | 39.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 29c | 36.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 78c | 35.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 75c | 29.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec1…fbccbacked Over | 80c | 22.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8450…ae44backed Under | 78c | 21.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 78c | 20.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Under | 61c | 20.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 77c | 20.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd650…8d74backed Over | 76c | 19.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…92a2backed Over | 69c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 4.5this page
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.