South American Leagues · resolved market
CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33fea31ab6a70f28e4dba553e3db4361a382bd7169108ea76c04e6bb0a66c1d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 64c | 4,663$2,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,982.89 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 4,137$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.29 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Over | 62c | 3,056$1,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.11 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +8.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 1,272$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.36 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 855.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 701.33$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.54 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af9…a022backed Under | 52c | 599.99$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 522.36$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.74 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 50c | 416.24$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.67 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed Over | 36c | 332.26$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.61 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53f2…defdbacked Under | 28c | 277$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 36c | 237.66$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…317ebacked Under | 63c | 200.22$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.14 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 36c | 178.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.01 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 65c | 158.84$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 36c | 126.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 64c | 118.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 36c | 106$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Over | 31c | 80.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 15c | 71.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 36c | 53.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…36ddbacked Under | 27c | 51.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b5…2ee9backed Under | 64c | 50.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Over | 40c | 47.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 37c | 44.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…1694backed Over | 36c | 40.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f0…d7a4backed Over | 62c | 37.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Over | 74c | 36.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Under | 50c | 36.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 35.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 34.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 46c | 31.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…2137backed Under | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b8…6253backed Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 29.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 71c | 29.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 61c | 27.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Under | 68c | 20.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 71c | 16.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5873…8f45backed Under | 66c | 15.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 3.5this page
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 1.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5Over won
- CR Flamengo vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)CR Flamengo won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)CR Flamengo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.