Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdb55af5d7ffa67487116d80ea283251b23a5d84a7d082fd68883616dd6f7147
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 33c | 40,000$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 56c | 18,924$10,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,326.56 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 17,870$12,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,121.73 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 39c | 6,606$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,595.09 | 133 | 27.8%37 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 79c | 5,342$4,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.91 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked No | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.98 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 2,192$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.15 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 44c | 1,335$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.13 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Yes | 38c | 1,250$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 1,213$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.87 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c3…bdf4backed Yes | 44c | 909.09$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…c13dbacked Yes | 43c | 790$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…f8c7backed No | 58c | 770$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…77bbbacked No | 58c | 740$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923d…dea6backed Yes | 43c | 720$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 19c | 619.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.62 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…479dbacked Yes | 44c | 563.3$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.85 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Yes | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b4…1014backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 39c | 499.92$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.97 | 103 | 32%33 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 39c | 439.73$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.96 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 62c | 420.2$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.29 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 38c | 380.97$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 57c | 328.31$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.68 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…f54fbacked Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 38c | 263.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 33c | 239.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 21c | 238.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…16b1backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…37dabacked Yes | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 56c | 188.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 56c | 169.97$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.79 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 26c | 168.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 42c | 166.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 43c | 155.22$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd224…9f9bbacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 43c | 113.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 111 | 30.6%34 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3203…d145backed Yes | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…92bdbacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 79c | 67.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3623…b50dbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7e…a082backed Yes | 45c | 53.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897b…151ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d58…d189backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 57c | 51.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…d108backed Yes | 44c | 51.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…32c5backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…300cbacked No | 56c | 48.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Yes | 28c | 46.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…fe51backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37d…36cdbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 38c | 41.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Yes | 44c | 40.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…9f92backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 64c | 36.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…c2fcbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 57c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed No | 56c | 31.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf957…70febacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 56c | 29.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 71c | 26.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Yes | 45c | 25.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 56c | 17.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-27?this page
- Will FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2025-11-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.