Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfde1205df3fa6f551dc5710063ba301a5367dfa94ca10fe514f1eb163c0cdcd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd573…f99ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,182$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.58 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 49c | 513.12$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.66 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 42c | 498.83$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.51 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 56c | 486.8$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.19 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked No | 54c | 360.15$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.67 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 44c | 230.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Yes | 46c | 221.62$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.95 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked Yes | 8c | 175.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 61c | 131.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 32c | 107.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d2…3287backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 37c | 95.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 43c | 94.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 45c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Yes | 40c | 84.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 46c | 67.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 57c | 63.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 44c | 45.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b77…1953backed Yes | 51c | 41.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 44c | 32.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed No | 55c | 32.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 44c | 30.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 52c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 46c | 29.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked No | 56c | 29.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 55c | 27.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 44c | 26.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…4961backed No | 55c | 26.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 54c | 26.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 39c | 25.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 56c | 23.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Yes | 43c | 23.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 45c | 22.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 50c | 19.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?No won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.