Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b81b3b26f42f887506f03e595324cd8a3fb4ba2f414a086bf5738b7550ff897
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 46c | 2,263$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.04 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 67c | 839.26$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.43 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 56c | 661.57$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.49 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 5c | 486.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 69c | 475.1$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.35 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 27c | 389.84$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.58 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 26c | 347.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.38 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 61c | 238.85$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 73c | 202.23$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed No | 55c | 189.02$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 72c | 184.47$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Yes | 29c | 165.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed No | 72c | 146.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked No | 35c | 106.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 28c | 100.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 42c | 98.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 66c | 95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fff…7fcabacked Yes | 28c | 88.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…c121backed No | 73c | 82.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 37c | 81.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 56c | 80.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked No | 35c | 79.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 58c | 79.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 73c | 67.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 73c | 67.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 73c | 67.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 73c | 67.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 73c | 67.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 73c | 67.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 73c | 67.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 73c | 67.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 73c | 67.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 73c | 67.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 73c | 67.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 30c | 60.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 37c | 40.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Yes | 29c | 37.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed No | 72c | 32.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked No | 72c | 32.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 72c | 32.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed No | 72c | 32.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked No | 72c | 32.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked No | 72c | 32.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked No | 72c | 32.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 72c | 32.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 72c | 32.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 72c | 32.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…a279backed No | 72c | 32.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked No | 39c | 28.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 26.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 72c | 20.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed No | 73c | 14.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.