MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdf1d0b9e2cd0feb073af6808bcbbe2aae36636fc9db148f09421da0e17ef336
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,335 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 0c | 4,090$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 379.52$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.18 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 220.85$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.23 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 181.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 155$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Chicago Cubs | 56c | 142$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 113.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 96.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…5f3cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 86.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 74.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 44c | 70.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Chicago Cubs | 56c | 66.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Chicago Cubs | 57c | 61.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 60.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…47c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 55.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4913…d01bbacked Chicago Cubs | 73c | 53.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…916dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 52.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…3223backed Chicago Cubs | 58c | 37.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 37.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Chicago Cubs | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…8fe0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Chicago Cubs | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81c0…8b96backed Chicago Cubs | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.