UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe364a70b14d7eeb43ccc6ba606a8329f617fbbcd00a37974e0ddc022f3c2e7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 21c | 1,412$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.74 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 27c | 1,286$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.16 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 24c | 917.52$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.25 | 155 | 37.4%58 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Yes | 73c | 911.33$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.95 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 75c | 700.66$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.69 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 73c | 602$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.79 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Yes | 73c | 484.16$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.61 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Yes | 70c | 315.18$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 10c | 243.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c49…c91bbacked No | 29c | 204.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 27c | 154.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…8f57backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 73c | 94.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…e4c2backed No | 21c | 72.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…d3fbbacked Yes | 72c | 71.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4c6cbacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…c6dfbacked No | 33c | 39.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b4…9332backed No | 34c | 33.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 70c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 383 | 53.3%204 W · 179 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf600…666dbacked Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Yes | 73c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb88c…078fbacked Yes | 72c | 20.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 73c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Yes | 71c | 18.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)Fatima Kline won
- Will Fatima Kline win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.