Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Poland (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe505f651ff65e4f2023456a699b068635c3398d0ee15b184dd697df0d8e0d1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigeriaof Poland, Nigeria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac47…d234backed Poland | 23c | 10,372$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,384.72 | 210 | 29%61 W · 149 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Nigeria | 77c | 8,082$6,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,858.86 | 281 | 62.6%176 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Poland | 2c | 1,692$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 444 | 35.4%157 W · 287 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Poland | 22c | 1,200$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.29 | 115 | 20%23 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Nigeria | 77c | 879.48$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.28 | 858 | 51.2%439 W · 419 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Nigeria | 78c | 434$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Nigeria | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 374 | 51.6%193 W · 181 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Nigeria | 77c | 259.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 396 | 48.7%193 W · 203 L | -23.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Poland | 23c | 178.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Nigeria | 78c | 160$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Nigeria | 78c | 142.49$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 815 | 54.8%447 W · 368 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Nigeria | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 85 | 72.9%62 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Poland | 24c | 121.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Nigeria | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Nigeria | 77c | 114.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Poland | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Poland | 25c | 106.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Nigeria | 77c | 102.23$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Poland | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Nigeria | 76c | 95.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Nigeria | 77c | 86.34$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Poland | 23c | 77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Nigeria | 77c | 73.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Nigeria | 77c | 73.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 355 | 49.9%177 W · 178 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nigeria | 78c | 70.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Nigeria | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Nigeria | 77c | 45.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 271 | 54.6%148 W · 123 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Nigeria | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Nigeria | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 370 | 57.3%212 W · 158 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Nigeria | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Nigeria | 77c | 20.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 235 | 52.8%124 W · 111 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Nigeria | 79c | 18.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Poland (-1.5)this page
- Poland vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5Over won
- Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5Over won
- Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5Over won
- Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5Over won
- Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5Under won
- Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Nigeria (-1.5)Poland won
- Spread: Poland (-2.5)Nigeria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.