Fifa International · resolved market
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2beaf5a747b496870c02029bbf800603ba76fdc40ac75789905f5761ba287406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Over | 72c | 2,786$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.75 | 304 | 65.1%198 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 31c | 2,694$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.02 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 27c | 1,214$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.67 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 68c | 597.16$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.45 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 55c | 570.55$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.75 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 34c | 477.55$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.66 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 72c | 423$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.44 | 765 | 51.6%395 W · 370 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 414.2$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.57 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa902…d159backed Over | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…12aebacked Under | 29c | 387.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 112 | 38.4%43 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 61c | 315$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.71 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0145…35d0backed Over | 73c | 275.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 148 | 66.9%99 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Over | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 224 | 66.1%148 W · 76 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 27c | 263.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 72c | 256.73$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.88 | 115 | 20%23 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Under | 30c | 254.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 60c | 235$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 372 | 42.5%158 W · 214 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Under | 7c | 233.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Over | 73c | 206.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 169 | 65.1%110 W · 59 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 315 | 53%167 W · 148 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…c5b9backed Over | 63c | 196.21$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 238 | 57.6%137 W · 101 L | +22.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 27c | 190.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 27c | 185.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Under | 17c | 165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 396 | 48.7%193 W · 203 L | -23.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…1938backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 27c | 128.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 19c | 109.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 66c | 108.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 239 | 40.6%97 W · 142 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Over | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 66 | 71.2%47 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Over | 63c | 87.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 27c | 71.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 27c | 70.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 413 | 44.1%182 W · 231 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 23c | 69.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 465 | 25.4%118 W · 347 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 77c | 69.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf945…6c15backed Over | 73c | 66.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 52 | 75%39 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 28c | 58.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 66c | 57.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Under | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 28c | 49.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 27c | 47.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 25c | 44.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 24c | 42.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…5e65backed Over | 74c | 32.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 61c | 32.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 187 | 64.2%120 W · 67 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 631 | 52.9%334 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…51a8backed Over | 72c | 27.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…a886backed Over | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7097…811cbacked Over | 78c | 21.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 100 | 68%68 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Over | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 220 | 52.3%115 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5this page
- Poland vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5Over won
- Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5Over won
- Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5Over won
- Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5Under won
- Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Nigeria (-1.5)Poland won
- Spread: Poland (-1.5)Nigeria won
- Spread: Poland (-2.5)Nigeria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.