Tennis · resolved market
Will Jannik Sinner reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe592e42c6742d7a65d70f165487cd5ca5eddd011ab38fb20f1cb6aa3d4d152d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 78c | 4,844$3,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 25c | 4,386$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.47 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked No | 11c | 2,321$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed No | 11c | 1,090$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 11c | 638.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…05c6backed Yes | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked No | 14c | 426.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 291.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 7c | 257.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…060bbacked No | 22c | 229.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 5c | 218.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…920fbacked No | 23c | 145.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed Yes | 78c | 26.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jannik Sinner reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?this page
- Will Alex De Minaur reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Alexander Zverev reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Ben Shelton reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Casper Ruud reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Felix Auger-Aliassime reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Frances Tiafoe reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Grigor Dimitrov reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Holger Rune reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Jack Draper reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Jiri Lehecka reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Joao Fonseca reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Karen Khachanov reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Lorenzo Musetti reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Matteo Berrettini reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Stefanos Tsitsipas reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Tomas Machac reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Tommy Paul reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.