Tennis · resolved market
Will Daniil Medvedev reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84e35b98f05b989e4f86d4490fe5e28da36644cccf7b478ffcd5dc389cbf4e67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 2c | 11,111$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.1 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes | 52c | 3,062$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 67c | 2,913$1,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.94 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 48c | 2,010$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.4 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 32c | 1,624$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.74 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes | 36c | 815$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 47c | 348.02$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.37 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Yes | 54c | 245.58$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 17c | 226.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…97dabacked Yes | 58c | 172.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…a55abacked Yes | 78c | 128.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed No | 41c | 110.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b53…1fe3backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc9…7870backed No | 39c | 90$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6150…13f7backed Yes | 56c | 73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.50per pick | 64cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…5fbebacked No | 44c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 45c | 38.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 34c | 38.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a3…456fbacked Yes | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Daniil Medvedev reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?this page
- Will Alex De Minaur reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Alexander Zverev reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Ben Shelton reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Casper Ruud reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Felix Auger-Aliassime reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Frances Tiafoe reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Grigor Dimitrov reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Holger Rune reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Jack Draper reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Jiri Lehecka reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Joao Fonseca reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Karen Khachanov reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Lorenzo Musetti reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Matteo Berrettini reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Stefanos Tsitsipas reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Tomas Machac reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?No won
- Will Tommy Paul reach the quarterfinals of the Australian Open?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.