NBA · resolved market
Will Lonzo Ball stay with the Chicago Bulls?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe625d62f9d8140502e45ede37f7566b19e1ab32b33dc071c8aa538ca24110c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74e1…e6a2backed No | 76c | 802$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.42 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 25c | 787$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.61 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23b1…8e10backed No | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 39c | 348.03$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.8 | 95 | 16.8%16 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 266.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.62 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 64c | 203.51$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 141.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…8685backed Yes | 32c | 121.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 37c | 64.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed No | 61c | 60.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 722 | 41.4%299 W · 423 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…a85abacked Yes | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad37…5021backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2558…9acebacked Yes | 30c | 39.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…a1aabacked Yes | 66c | 39.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 36c | 38.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc22…ee03backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc99a…649abacked Yes | 39c | 31.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…f57abacked No | 65c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…6360backed Yes | 39c | 29.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…2456backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b8…7af9backed No | 63c | 17.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lonzo Ball stay with the Chicago Bulls?this page
- Will Lonzo Ball get traded to the Atlanta Hawks?No won
- Will Lonzo Ball get traded to the Brooklyn Nets?No won
- Will Lonzo Ball get traded to the Los Angeles Lakers?No won
- Will Lonzo Ball get traded to the Orlando Magic?No won
- Will Lonzo Ball get traded to the Phoenix Suns?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.