Tennis · resolved market
Guangzhou Open: Katarzyna Kawa vs Katie Volynets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe90644f168103c21e2018dad009d7de6c6b633a682cf21800eb1e9a696fed7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Volynetsof Kawa, Volynets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kawa | 20c | 9,358$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872.01 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Volynets | 71c | 4,445$3,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.58 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Volynets | 66c | 4,243$2,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.04 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Kawa | 43c | 1,925$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.45 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Volynets | 58c | 1,768$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.91 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Kawa | 28c | 1,525$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.47 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Volynets | 74c | 1,389$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.45 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Volynets | 57c | 1,200$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kawa | 39c | 1,154$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.8 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Volynets | 68c | 650$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Volynets | 63c | 518.75$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.47 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Kawa | 10c | 499.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Kawa | 22c | 444.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Volynets | 61c | 326$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.39 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51c6…c26dbacked Kawa | 29c | 320$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Kawa | 13c | 303$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Kawa | 43c | 243.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Kawa | 27c | 216$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Kawa | 14c | 205$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kawa | 51c | 196.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Volynets | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Volynets | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…df17backed Kawa | 18c | 83.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Volynets | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Kawa | 23c | 68.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Kawa | 45c | 66.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Volynets | 78c | 59.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Kawa | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Volynets | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.