TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Diego State Aztecs

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego State Aztecsof Fresno State Bulldogs, San Diego State Aztecs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,676
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,676 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea22…747abacked Fresno State Bulldogs0c10,000$10 inLost-$1024121.2%51 W · 190 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+299%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Fresno State Bulldogs10c5,453$573 inLost-$572.512,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Fresno State Bulldogs9c3,800$342 inLost-$342.0310511.4%12 W · 93 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Fresno State Bulldogs6c2,763$154 inLost-$153.533910.3%4 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-52%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Fresno State Bulldogs10c2,616$254 inLost-$253.842,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Fresno State Bulldogs10c1,500$150 inLost-$15020026%52 W · 148 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7441…cb79backed Fresno State Bulldogs10c1,000$100 inLost-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.33per pick41cpaid-80.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Fresno State Bulldogs9c937.83$84 inLost-$84.42,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9403…cd0ebacked Fresno State Bulldogs7c672.22$44 inLost-$4430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe35…d34abacked Fresno State Bulldogs8c625$50 inLost-$50119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-72.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Fresno State Bulldogs11c471.92$54 inLost-$53.751,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Fresno State Bulldogs5c377.6$19 inLost-$18.684517.8%8 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-61%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x187b…f545backed Fresno State Bulldogs5c353.62$17 inLost-$16.5910049%49 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16f4…d954backed Fresno State Bulldogs5c235.29$12 inLost-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Fresno State Bulldogs9c222$20 inLost-$19.981,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c64…0e91backed Fresno State Bulldogs10c210$21 inLost-$2160%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Fresno State Bulldogs10c142.9$15 inLost-$14.8373549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee5…5167backed Fresno State Bulldogs10c100$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.