Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 143.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2213ff39edad6113258847ac519c276d9b135fd026fafbd98ba3e5a2fcac2c48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $606,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $626,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $606,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 55c | 570,688$314,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314,554.28 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 45c | 300,000$135,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165,000 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 45c | 193,162$86,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106,701.04 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 44c | 25,000$11,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,900 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…3081backed Under | 44c | 19,437$8,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,810.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 12,398$5,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,791.25 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Under | 45c | 4,500$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 45c | 4,005$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,202.75 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 56c | 3,075$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.26 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 3,044$1,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.61 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 2,399$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.91 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 45c | 1,032$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.59 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Under | 46c | 978.26$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.26 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…7487backed Over | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 59c | 700$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.95 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Under | 45c | 600.73$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.4 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Under | 47c | 430.85$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.35 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 44c | 388$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.28 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5c…6c0fbacked Over | 56c | 323.72$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Under | 46c | 273.12$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.48 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 26c | 218.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…f286backed Under | 43c | 178$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00e…fb86backed Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 44c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 44c | 121$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed Under | 42c | 101.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 46c | 96.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…d6fdbacked Under | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 45c | 89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Under | 46c | 80.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Under | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Under | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 46cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…f098backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…f75cbacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 47.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…aca7backed Under | 47c | 47.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 44c | 45.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…901bbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9899…a7f5backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c8…6354backed Under | 45c | 39.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1d…d031backed Under | 47c | 30.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 46c | 27.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 47c | 25.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…7f09backed Under | 47c | 24.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Diego State Aztecs: O/U 143.5this page
- Fresno State Bulldogs vs. San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State Aztecs won
- Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-14.5)San Diego State Aztecs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.