Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfef7fa6cc98fa7301752e629411e1e689b9bbdb45cc5e839077fd5a51453c0f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 534.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 360.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.75 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 250.32$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 37c | 193.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.46 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 181.8$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 172.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.87 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 149$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 20c | 131.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 128.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 16c | 108.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 105.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 79c | 102.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 102.57$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 22c | 93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 81.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 76.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 21c | 76.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 45c | 73.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 67.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 21c | 56.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 53.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 35c | 52.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 57c | 51.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 37.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 35.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 29.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed No | 69c | 27.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 26.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 26.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…558bbacked No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 24.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 20.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 73c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 100-101°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.