TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,721

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,582 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes32c1,048$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.0842036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No68c1,001$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.421,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes49c602.13$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.341,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c233.85$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.0312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c227.96$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.769,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes36c221.5$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.24,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes30c204.77$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4480130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No62c204.25$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2271649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No65c204.11$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.012,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes12c194.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.252,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c181.8$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.345,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes36c180.68$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.81,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked Yes51c170$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5221651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6944…3902backed No64c164$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes36c142.33$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0187437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed Yes35c142.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5033351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No66c136.17$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.32,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes35c124.95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.735754.4%31 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c118.43$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.922,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes15c112.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.611,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes39c111.14$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5694552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes39c111.11$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.063,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0050…cad1backed No65c110$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.75350.9%27 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes37c103.38$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.232352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No59c99.98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.261,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No77c87.51$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.541,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes35c87.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1463538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c79.91$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.973,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes44c79.31$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.534353.5%23 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No72c78.71$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0458152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No58c69.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a7…2133backed Yes51c68.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No62c61.42$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.541,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No63c59.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.131,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c58.31$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.168,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No62c55.54$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1146743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes34c48.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.754,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No63c48.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.27,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes22c48.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5210133.7%34 W · 67 L-10.9wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes34c47.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.011,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e59…ac60backed Yes34c43.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.67728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes37c40.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1559144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No51c40.16$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.561,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb410…56b7backed No69c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.64759.6%28 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fe…16e4backed No68c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.87100%7 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No63c39.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6883360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.24,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No48c35.34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.263,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed Yes38c34.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9415449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No71c34.24$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.822,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4699…695abacked Yes53c33.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1812072.5%87 W · 33 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No66c32.86$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.172,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes37c32.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.015,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed No64c31.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.215555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No62c31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7842762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked No42c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.551,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No60c29.12$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7664859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb226…4163backed No62c28.37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7813672.1%98 W · 38 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No64c28.11$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1246457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No67c27.72$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.061,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b33…9f80backed No58c27.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.644141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No76c27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4899571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No76c27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4847569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No66c26.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.952,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No61c24.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.691,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No66c23.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2216859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No71c23.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.751,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x232a…4895backed Yes43c23.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109053.3%48 W · 42 L-9.8wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-24.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed No72c20.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9622550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ece…1949backed No75c20.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1717361.8%107 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No71c20.26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.861,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b88…a191backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.82441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.429351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.629354.3%159 W · 134 L-25.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.617165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c19.16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.724,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No58c18.95$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.961,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No71c18.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.432,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c17.34$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.765,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed No62c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4929281.5%238 W · 54 L+27.9wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+14.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No62c16.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1866944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.