Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5d5761b89eb7bc2fead87ceadf1f503b19b0c19763c05289bd0d6c5c5bc6974
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 442.66$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 40c | 300$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 217.43$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 32c | 201.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 191.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 174.59$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 149.34$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 72c | 138.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 123.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 122.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 22c | 103.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 101.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 96.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 94.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 93.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 89.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 23c | 87.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 85.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 76.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 72.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 62.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 68c | 58.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 50.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 45.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 79c | 39.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 75c | 37.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 69c | 25.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 71c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 70c | 23.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 20.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 19.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 19.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 100-101°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.