Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff074178e0b771dbef9e2a773931c541809abfa52cb9afc631d58e1461839dba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,353$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.76 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 19c | 900.12$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.64 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 22c | 846.94$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.14 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 13c | 800.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 708.59$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 79c | 613.19$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.52 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 10c | 598.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 19c | 551.87$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 14c | 520$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 16c | 516.49$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 18c | 456.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 12c | 397.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…6e9bbacked No | 79c | 396.25$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 365.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 345$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf742…400ebacked Yes | 14c | 333.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 116 | 14.7%17 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes | 32c | 316.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 14c | 315.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 307.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 278.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 5c | 250.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed No | 78c | 227.55$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 14c | 216.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 27c | 200.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 75c | 191.09$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 183.6$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 170.52$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 31c | 162.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 27c | 159.54$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 13c | 152$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 13c | 148.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 14c | 146.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 78c | 132.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 115.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 17c | 96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 73c | 92.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 88.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 86.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked No | 77c | 85.82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 63c | 85.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…8b1cbacked Yes | 31c | 80.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 17c | 68.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 67.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 64c | 64.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 63.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 62.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 57.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 21c | 52.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 24c | 50.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…dd93backed No | 72c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…6c34backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 71c | 35.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…255cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…d52fbacked No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 75c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.