Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72772e54d535047c8d2212b1356d660179589036df7f15647b09995e63aa4a24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 52c | 2,481$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.28 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 59c | 1,512$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.23 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed No | 49c | 1,202$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…9668backed Yes | 45c | 894.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.92 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 21c | 799.57$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 72c | 712.8$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.92 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 51c | 711.48$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.82 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 29c | 598.88$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.8 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 41c | 578$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.49 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 20c | 537.26$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 50c | 462.95$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.29 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 20c | 457$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 439.65$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 406.06$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 76c | 393.32$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.43 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 383.28$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 368.9$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed Yes | 75c | 353.29$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 48c | 309.51$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.77 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 69c | 309.05$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…a129backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 37c | 300$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 21c | 286.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 54c | 275.35$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.35 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 271.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.3 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 258.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 17c | 244.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked Yes | 80c | 238.31$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 224.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 216$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 24c | 213.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…cd3ebacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee1…3603backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed No | 64c | 198.6$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 175.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.21 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 168.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 7c | 168.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked Yes | 79c | 161.17$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe19…1199backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 27c | 152.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 44c | 130.84$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 129$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582c…3266backed Yes | 80c | 125.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 68c | 122.03$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 21c | 122.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 117.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 28c | 111.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 29c | 96.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 51c | 91.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 90.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 90.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 24c | 82.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…c3e0backed Yes | 74c | 82.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -66%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…8b1cbacked Yes | 50c | 80.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 27c | 80.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 37c | 79.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 26c | 78.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…47c6backed Yes | 64c | 77.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +133%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…1d8dbacked No | 64c | 76.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 61c | 74.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 48c | 73.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 23c | 69.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 57c | 64.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked No | 46c | 61.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 24c | 59.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 37c | 58.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 72c | 57.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…66bfbacked Yes | 45c | 57.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 25c | 53.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked No | 63c | 53.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed Yes | 77c | 51.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 23c | 51.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 49c | 51.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 23c | 45.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 36c | 45.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 49c | 42.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6592…291ebacked No | 64c | 40.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 63c | 39.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 45c | 39.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 49c | 39.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 37.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 60c | 37.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 37c | 36.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 36.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1b…2fffbacked Yes | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…a5ccbacked Yes | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 32.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.