TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,355
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,562

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,355 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Over47c5,991$2,816 inLost-$2,815.6211,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under48c3,361$1,610 inWon+$1,750.921,93941.2%799 W · 1,140 L-30.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under60c2,071$1,232 inWon+$838.788,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under60c715.25$428 inWon+$287.198,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over46c628.59$286 inLost-$286.028,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under54c494.43$269 inWon+$225.892,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Over48c208.33$100 inLost-$10040753.6%218 W · 189 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over50c165.14$83 inLost-$82.7510,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under69c153.99$107 inWon+$47.1112,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over39c134$52 inLost-$52.261,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b6…babfbacked Under52c121.15$63 inWon+$58.1531849.7%158 W · 160 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under44c82.45$36 inWon+$46.356,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under47c76$36 inWon+$40.2899744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under49c59.51$29 inWon+$30.196,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Under51c56$29 inWon+$27.4457346.9%269 W · 304 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over51c51.45$26 inLost-$26.491,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under55c35.51$19 inWon+$16.145,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over56c30.99$17 inLost-$17.384,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under76c30.49$23 inWon+$7.282,54645.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L-74.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0514…def7backed Over50c30$15 inLost-$155844.8%26 W · 32 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under52c25.15$13 inWon+$11.962,58861.5%1,591 W · 997 L+72.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd344…e41bbacked Over47c25.06$12 inLost-$11.764456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Under79c20.53$16 inWon+$4.2444945.9%206 W · 243 L-1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.