TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Idaho State Bengals vs. Montana State Bobcats

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Montana State Bobcatsof Idaho State Bengals, Montana State Bobcats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,305

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,013 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked Montana State Bobcats70c3,452$2,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.634,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Idaho State Bengals29c1,493$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.7612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Idaho State Bengals29c689$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.815,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Idaho State Bengals30c646$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.311,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3817…7d10backed Idaho State Bengals30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15029845.3%135 W · 163 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Montana State Bobcats62c373.52$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.015,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Idaho State Bengals29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006346%29 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Montana State Bobcats70c319.8$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9475447.1%355 W · 399 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Idaho State Bengals30c308.39$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3252928.4%150 W · 379 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Montana State Bobcats72c302$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.562,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Idaho State Bengals37c224.05$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.981,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Montana State Bobcats69c217$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2716053.8%86 W · 74 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Idaho State Bengals38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Montana State Bobcats68c186$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.522,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Idaho State Bengals7c160$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1494036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed Idaho State Bengals32c154.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5653646.5%249 W · 287 L-24.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Montana State Bobcats74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.0261446.1%283 W · 331 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Idaho State Bengals24c144.28$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.163,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Montana State Bobcats68c124.1$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.918654.3%101 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Idaho State Bengals25c120.18$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5357335.6%204 W · 369 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Idaho State Bengals19c115.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4987047.2%411 W · 459 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Idaho State Bengals28c83.12$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2799045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Montana State Bobcats69c75$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2522552.9%119 W · 106 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc030…22e4backed Idaho State Bengals29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Montana State Bobcats68c55.63$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.943,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Idaho State Bengals28c52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5697447.9%467 W · 507 L-2.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeca…8c27backed Idaho State Bengals30c50.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.19037.8%34 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Idaho State Bengals30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd08…84b0backed Montana State Bobcats66c45.36$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4129954.2%162 W · 137 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Idaho State Bengals31c39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.092,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Montana State Bobcats69c18.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.652,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x128f…47afbacked Montana State Bobcats77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.458459.5%50 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.