Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Idaho State Bengals vs. Montana State Bobcats
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff28052a8131f7dafdc5c4621a6c0ba672982758d3642fd81cd473889d5b22da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana State Bobcatsof Idaho State Bengals, Montana State Bobcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Montana State Bobcats | 70c | 3,452$2,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.63 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Idaho State Bengals | 29c | 1,493$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.76 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Idaho State Bengals | 29c | 689$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Idaho State Bengals | 30c | 646$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.31 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3817…7d10backed Idaho State Bengals | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 298 | 45.3%135 W · 163 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Montana State Bobcats | 62c | 373.52$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.01 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Idaho State Bengals | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 70c | 319.8$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Idaho State Bengals | 30c | 308.39$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Montana State Bobcats | 72c | 302$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Idaho State Bengals | 37c | 224.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Montana State Bobcats | 69c | 217$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 160 | 53.8%86 W · 74 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Idaho State Bengals | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Montana State Bobcats | 68c | 186$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Idaho State Bengals | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Idaho State Bengals | 32c | 154.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Montana State Bobcats | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Idaho State Bengals | 24c | 144.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Montana State Bobcats | 68c | 124.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 186 | 54.3%101 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Idaho State Bengals | 25c | 120.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 573 | 35.6%204 W · 369 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Idaho State Bengals | 19c | 115.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Idaho State Bengals | 28c | 83.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Montana State Bobcats | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 225 | 52.9%119 W · 106 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc030…22e4backed Idaho State Bengals | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Montana State Bobcats | 68c | 55.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Idaho State Bengals | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…8c27backed Idaho State Bengals | 30c | 50.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Idaho State Bengals | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…84b0backed Montana State Bobcats | 66c | 45.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 299 | 54.2%162 W · 137 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Idaho State Bengals | 31c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Montana State Bobcats | 69c | 18.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Montana State Bobcats | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Idaho State Bengals vs. Montana State Bobcatsthis page
- Idaho State Bengals vs. Montana State Bobcats: O/U 144.5Under won
- Spread: Montana State Bobcats (-6.5)Montana State Bobcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.