Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff2fc4ef4ddd74e2b68628dcabc4ba33162d187dab8d91e0f4dae87c42761506
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 872.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 557.23$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.88 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 15c | 347.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.24 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 276.49$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 18c | 246.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.49 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 233.57$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 34c | 215$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 62c | 190$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 40c | 186.45$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 56c | 171.62$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 168$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…0203backed Yes | 39c | 127.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed7…9117backed No | 70c | 99.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 24c | 79.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9525…e67fbacked Yes | 14c | 76.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +599.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…33babacked Yes | 26c | 71.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +165.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 20c | 70.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 31c | 64.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 64.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 21c | 63.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 62.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 22c | 57.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 40c | 54.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 53.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 51.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 49c | 46.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 34c | 45.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 33c | 45.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…eae7backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 61c | 31.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 65c | 29.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 40c | 26.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 60c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 53c | 20.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 64c | 19.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 60c | 16.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 16.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 75c | 15.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.